By Ryan Gravel – Real Estate Investor & Developer
Looking Beyond the Horizon
If you’re planning to invest in Bacalar real estate, now is the time. Investing in real estate is all about vision. But even more important than vision is timing. Being too early can mean tying up capital in a market that hasn’t matured, and being too late means overpaying and missing the upside.
Smart investors seek that middle ground: a market with clear signals of growth, rising demand, and accessibility—but still undervalued. That’s what we call an emerging market. Today, one of the most compelling examples of that is Bacalar, Mexico.
The Metrics That Matter: Understanding KPIs in Real Estate
Before diving into why Bacalar deserves your attention, let’s unpack the concept of KPIs—Key Performance Indicators—as they apply to real estate markets. These are the measurable factors we use to assess the strength and future potential of an area:
1. Accessibility & Infrastructure
A market can’t grow without access. Bacalar, until recently, was limited by geography. That’s changing fast:
- Tulum International Airport (opened in 2024): Shortens travel time dramatically for international tourists.
- Chetumal International Airport: 30 minutes away and receiving investment for expansion.
- Tren Maya: A 1,500 km rail project set to link Bacalar with major hubs like Cancun, Tulum, and Palenque, providing both tourist and local access.
Increased accessibility equals more foot traffic, tourism, and investor interest.
2. Global Recognition
Even luxury brands are picking up on Bacalar’s allure. Bentley named one of its most exclusive cars—the Bentley Bacalar—after the lake. It wasn’t just a branding move; it was an intentional alignment with exclusivity, elegance, and natural beauty. That type of global attention is rare and a signal that a place is gaining cultural and lifestyle relevance.
3. Undervalued Market Pricing
Bacalar is priced well below comparable markets in the region. Today, you can find lake-view condos for as little as $2,300 USD per square meter.
Compare this to:
- Tulum & Playa del Carmen Ocean View Condos: Typically $4,500–$6,000 USD/m²
That’s a 95–160% price gap, offering strong appreciation potential as Bacalar develops.
The Influx of People: What Population Growth Means for Investors
According to Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), the population of the Quintana Roo region has grown by more than 30% over the last decade. As tourism infrastructure expands southward from Cancun and Tulum, areas like Bacalar are starting to see a steady influx of both domestic and international residents.
What does this mean for real estate?
- Demand for housing is increasing—not only for tourists but for long-term renters and digital nomads.
- Short-term rental supply is still limited, giving early investors a unique window to establish themselves before saturation.
- ADRs (Average Daily Rates) are beginning to climb. In 2020, Bacalar’s ADRs averaged $70–$90 USD. By 2024, rates are trending closer to $130–$160 USD for well-located properties, with luxury listings exceeding that.
Two Pillars of Profitability: Appreciation and Cash Flow
1. Appreciation: Riding the Growth Curve
Let’s take a closer look at historical growth in nearby markets to understand the upside.
- Tulum: In 2012, ocean-view condos were selling at ~$1,500 USD/m². Today, they average $4,500–$6,000 USD/m², marking a 200–300% increase in value.
- Playa del Carmen: Similar trajectory, with property prices more than tripling over the past 10 years.
If Bacalar follows even a conservative 150% appreciation trajectory over the next 5–8 years, today’s lake-view unit at $2,300/m² could rise to $5,750/m²—a gain of $3,450 per square meter, or 150% ROI on capital alone.
2. Cash Flow: The Value of Being Early
When you enter a market early, especially in the short-term rental space, you gain a critical advantage:
- You establish your property with early reviews and visibility.
- You build occupancy history on platforms like Airbnb.
- You lock in lower operational costs while revenue increases.
Investors in early-stage Bacalar properties are already seeing 12–15% net ROI annually, significantly higher than saturated markets like Cancun or Playa del Carmen, where ROI often dips below 8–10% due to competition and rising costs.
Final Thoughts: Risk, Reward, and the Smart Investor’s Path
Entering a new market can feel daunting—but the key is making informed decisions based on data, trends, and strategic foresight.
Bacalar is no longer a secret. With global attention rising, infrastructure catching up, and pricing still accessible, it sits at a rare intersection of beauty, opportunity, and value. Whether you’re a seasoned investor expanding your portfolio or someone entering the space for the first time, this is a moment to act.
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.”
If you’re interested in learning more about investing in Bacalar or want help navigating your first acquisition, reach out. I’m here to guide you, not just sell you—because informed investors are successful investors.
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Ryan Gravel
Real Estate Investor & Developer
Follow us on Instagram: @buybacalar